Maha Kootami is going to win..As per statistical analysis.. 0 comments

I am always interested in analyses that challenge me..Here is my first analysis on the forthcoming assembly election in Andhra..

Statistics show the power of alliances in elections..No party has won without having good alliances in the recent years..Especially, the communists play a big role..

See here..If you compare the 1999 and 2004 elections, Cong won because of alliances..Communists can not win on their own..But they control the critical votes required to win..

For 1999 data, Go to page 14 in this http://www.eci.gov.in/StatisticalReports/SE_1999/StatisticalReport-AP99.pdf

and for 2004 data go to page 144 in this.. http://ceoandhra.nic.in/Statistical2004.pdf

These are not my docs..these are provided by EC.

As you can see, Communists got 10% of the votes in whatever the areas they contested and they contested alone in 1999. They contested in 93 seats..So..They got on average of around 10% in those 93 seats..Since Cong was with them in 2004, it was a big plus to Cong..That's why they got around 49% (Cong+CPI+CPM+TRS) compared to 41% of TDP+BJP.

Now congress is fighting alone and YSR damn sure knows he is not going to win..Congress can not go with communists because Communists parted with Cong at the centre..TRS if comesback to Cong people in Telangana will slap them..So they wont and may fight all alone but they will fail..

Chiru will definitely have affect on Cong and TDP but I assuming he will have equal affect on both of them..

As told above, communists contributed around 10% of the votes in each consitituency. So, If they go with TDP, the congress people who won with less than 20% margin will lose..It's the worst case scenario for congress and it will get only around 40-50 seats..

Here is my excel file shows the analysis..http://www.esnips.com/doc/d4c111ca-cb63-4317-b0b1-6703c446c79b/Political-Analysis-1
If we take the base case scenario as a margin of 15%, then Congress will win only 67 seats..

If we take the best case scenario as 10% which is highly unlikely, Congress will win 108 seats..

So..Congress there you go..And Ya..CBN is not a fool to get into an alliance with Communists..He knows he lost because of them only..Now he made sure that they are on his side...even by going to Delhi..

The worst attack in Mumbai and the weakest government 0 comments

I feel ashamed to be ruled by a government which can not control the terror that has been evolving over the last 1 year. The terrorists are ripping the country off and the idiotic Shivraj Patil just expresses his condolences and can not do anything..

The Congress govt repealed POTA for the votes..And now we suffer..losing three of the best Mumbai police officers..

BOMB ATTACKS IN INDIA IN 2008 till now

30 October: Explosions kill at least 64 in north-eastern Assam
30 September: Blasts in western India kill at least seven
27 September: Bomb blasts kills one in Delhi
13 September: Five bomb blasts kill 18 in Delhi
26 July: At least 22 small bombs kill 49 in Ahmedabad
25 July: Seven bombs go off in Bangalore killing two people
13 May: Seven bomb hit markets and crowded streets in Jaipur killing 63


Come on People..Let's send these pricks back home.. Jai Hind. Hail India..

Power Mismanagement and Sc/St welfare false claims 3 comments

The current Andhra government completely mismanaged the power sector and we are facing a crisis now.

Also, its claims on SC/ST/BC welfare are false claims. Here is my analysis on both these issues.

http://www.esnips.com/doc/56b1081d-e256-4bf3-bcce-330f5b40bdf6/Congress-Govt-Power-Mismanagement-and-False-clamis-on-SCST-welafre

SEZ woes..Nellore 0 comments

Here is a report by an international agency on the woes of the people of Nellore because of SEZs.

SEZs can be beneficial but the people have to be compensated properly.

http://www.esnips.com/doc/7a243b07-94e4-4bdd-8adc-e0c547d3caa8/AP-people-suffering-due-to-SEZ

YSR Charitham 0 comments

Here is the history of this great leader..

http://www.esnips.com/doc/298d4a86-a7b2-45e2-bdcc-d525d867e8dd/YSR-Charitham

A factionist CM 0 comments

I am not a fan of TDP or PRP..I am just a vexed citizen of Andhra Pradesh, which has been torn apart by our notorious CM YSR.

My agenda is just to post the facts in here..Here is the first one in that regard..

http://www.esnips.com/doc/aa22731b-25f5-4990-bf01-8924c137c538/factionist_becomes_chief_minister

Welcome 0 comments

Friends,

The purpose of this blog is to educate people on how the state has been torn apart with political murders, scams running into crores and lack of control on administration that led to the collapse of not only morals but also public service.

Jai Andhra Pradesh, Jai Jai Andhra Pradesh.

Regards,
Andhra Tejam

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