Maha Kootami is going to win..As per statistical analysis..
I am always interested in analyses that challenge me..Here is my first analysis on the forthcoming assembly election in Andhra..
Statistics show the power of alliances in elections..No party has won without having good alliances in the recent years..Especially, the communists play a big role..
See here..If you compare the 1999 and 2004 elections, Cong won because of alliances..Communists can not win on their own..But they control the critical votes required to win..
For 1999 data, Go to page 14 in this http://www.eci.gov.in/StatisticalReports/SE_1999/StatisticalReport-AP99.pdf
and for 2004 data go to page 144 in this.. http://ceoandhra.nic.in/Statistical2004.pdf
These are not my docs..these are provided by EC.
As you can see, Communists got 10% of the votes in whatever the areas they contested and they contested alone in 1999. They contested in 93 seats..So..They got on average of around 10% in those 93 seats..Since Cong was with them in 2004, it was a big plus to Cong..That's why they got around 49% (Cong+CPI+CPM+TRS) compared to 41% of TDP+BJP.
Now congress is fighting alone and YSR damn sure knows he is not going to win..Congress can not go with communists because Communists parted with Cong at the centre..TRS if comesback to Cong people in Telangana will slap them..So they wont and may fight all alone but they will fail..
Chiru will definitely have affect on Cong and TDP but I assuming he will have equal affect on both of them..
As told above, communists contributed around 10% of the votes in each consitituency. So, If they go with TDP, the congress people who won with less than 20% margin will lose..It's the worst case scenario for congress and it will get only around 40-50 seats..
Here is my excel file shows the analysis..http://www.esnips.com/doc/d4c111ca-cb63-4317-b0b1-6703c446c79b/Political-Analysis-1
If we take the base case scenario as a margin of 15%, then Congress will win only 67 seats..
If we take the best case scenario as 10% which is highly unlikely, Congress will win 108 seats..
So..Congress there you go..And Ya..CBN is not a fool to get into an alliance with Communists..He knows he lost because of them only..Now he made sure that they are on his side...even by going to Delhi..
Statistics show the power of alliances in elections..No party has won without having good alliances in the recent years..Especially, the communists play a big role..
See here..If you compare the 1999 and 2004 elections, Cong won because of alliances..Communists can not win on their own..But they control the critical votes required to win..
For 1999 data, Go to page 14 in this http://www.eci.gov.in/StatisticalReports/SE_1999/StatisticalReport-AP99.pdf
and for 2004 data go to page 144 in this.. http://ceoandhra.nic.in/Statistical2004.pdf
These are not my docs..these are provided by EC.
As you can see, Communists got 10% of the votes in whatever the areas they contested and they contested alone in 1999. They contested in 93 seats..So..They got on average of around 10% in those 93 seats..Since Cong was with them in 2004, it was a big plus to Cong..That's why they got around 49% (Cong+CPI+CPM+TRS) compared to 41% of TDP+BJP.
Now congress is fighting alone and YSR damn sure knows he is not going to win..Congress can not go with communists because Communists parted with Cong at the centre..TRS if comesback to Cong people in Telangana will slap them..So they wont and may fight all alone but they will fail..
Chiru will definitely have affect on Cong and TDP but I assuming he will have equal affect on both of them..
As told above, communists contributed around 10% of the votes in each consitituency. So, If they go with TDP, the congress people who won with less than 20% margin will lose..It's the worst case scenario for congress and it will get only around 40-50 seats..
Here is my excel file shows the analysis..http://www.esnips.com/doc/d4c111ca-cb63-4317-b0b1-6703c446c79b/Political-Analysis-1
If we take the base case scenario as a margin of 15%, then Congress will win only 67 seats..
If we take the best case scenario as 10% which is highly unlikely, Congress will win 108 seats..
So..Congress there you go..And Ya..CBN is not a fool to get into an alliance with Communists..He knows he lost because of them only..Now he made sure that they are on his side...even by going to Delhi..